Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 4.921149 5.785084 6.740162 7.872079 9.174636 10.624187 12.357063
2025-07-27 3.724353 4.923040 6.391079 8.310409 10.741456 13.704886 17.576140
2025-08-03 2.831134 4.140046 5.889154 8.371860 11.774663 16.239789 22.499913
2025-08-10 2.139548 3.423587 5.276797 8.102295 12.245924 18.032515 26.638472
2025-08-17 1.628123 2.829160 4.687994 7.709525 12.413621 19.350033 30.205738
2025-08-24 1.314172 2.460081 4.348016 7.595781 12.923492 21.157987 34.621363
2025-08-31 1.083404 2.173661 4.076714 7.524579 13.454567 23.014892 39.266043
2025-09-07 0.958780 2.046149 4.043627 7.830613 14.616917 25.962493 45.900561
2025-09-14 0.821632 1.863950 3.877236 7.866774 15.305419 28.182383 51.540392
2025-09-21 0.707649 1.702660 3.719071 7.885933 15.950674 30.373132 57.316059
2025-09-28 0.612578 1.560254 3.571408 7.896951 16.569772 32.561311 63.268915
2025-10-05 0.592118 1.579819 3.755788 8.588906 18.557019 37.389263 74.347730
2025-10-12 0.536075 1.507659 3.740337 8.881535 19.823798 41.060640 83.750813
2025-10-19 0.489386 1.449038 3.746483 9.224031 21.238722 45.162829 94.362450
2025-10-26 0.427751 1.337806 3.612871 9.238696 21.972415 48.011802 102.835069
2025-11-02 0.357490 1.185634 3.353551 8.925252 21.959255 49.363037 108.485102
2025-11-09 0.293141 1.032928 3.063174 8.489813 21.614334 49.988345 112.715618
2025-11-16 0.252437 0.940066 2.909668 8.363335 21.951665 52.065142 120.090690
2025-11-23 0.219520 0.862787 2.783306 8.284784 22.388002 54.387919 128.168921
2025-11-30 0.204825 0.842349 2.812755 8.618499 23.855490 59.103888 141.747293
2025-12-07 0.182591 0.789457 2.737773 8.657848 24.596431 62.248157 152.134372
2025-12-14 0.162596 0.738987 2.660478 8.678713 25.291670 65.346261 162.661272
2025-12-21 0.144833 0.691768 2.584219 8.690722 25.964319 68.448079 173.436820